A Quantum-Enabled World: Survive, then Thrive
By Jordan Kenyon, Taylor Brady, and Joseph Munoz (Booz Allen)
Quantum technologies will change the world. Together, these technologies will enrich human lives through a range of applications from defense to healthcare. From advances in materials science alone, we could see next-generation energy storage solutions; cost-effective methods for creating new fertilizers to boost agriculture; or the rapid discovery of new medicines. There is little doubt that forward-leaning governments and companies can thrive in a quantum-enabled world, but they will first need to survive the unprecedented threat quantum poses to a cornerstone of modern cybersecurity.
Quantum Computers will break Asymmetric Cryptography
It is a question of when, not if. Some commercial roadmaps suggest quantum computers will break asymmetric cryptography as early as 2029. A quantum algorithm that breaks cryptography already exists: Shor’s algorithm. The threat timeline depends on when quantum computers will reach sufficient size and robustness to run this algorithm at scale.
New research suggests that running Shor’s algorithm will likely take far fewer quantum bits, or “qubits,” than originally thought to run. While there are many more factors than qubit count that characterize the overall performance of a quantum computer, it does provide a rough measure for scale. For example, there is a notable difference between the resources required—and time to execute— a quantum algorithm requiring 20 million qubits versus 1 million qubits.
While scientists and technologists around the world work to develop quantum computers at larger and larger scales, the fight for digital security is already underway. “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” (HNDL) attacks are likely already occurring. Since most sensitive data remains valuable for some time, bad actors can capture encrypted traffic today and store it for later decryption. In government, classified information with distant declassification dates must often be protected for many decades. In the commercial sector, organizations are often concerned with personal identifiable information (PII), protected health information (PHI), intellectual property (IP), and financial data. Once HNDL collection begins, it is hard to mitigate its impact, and the full national and economic security implications may not surface for years.
The Solution is Post-Quantum Cryptography
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has worked since 2016 to identify and standardize the next-generation defenses the United States needs to repel both classical and quantum cyberattacks. Referred to collectively as Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC), these new algorithms have undergone significant, sustained global testing for nearly a decade to build confidence in their ability to effectively defend against classical and quantum threats.
However, the transition to PQC is a monumental undertaking that’s likely to take more than a decade. That’s time we don’t have if the most optimistic roadmaps are accurate and we see cryptographically relevant quantum computers circa 2030. PQC algorithms are not a simple replacement for the previous generation of asymmetric algorithms. The transition process is complex and costly: U.S. federal civilian agencies alone are estimated to spend over $7 billion between now and 2035 on the transition. This figure is substantial on its own, but especially so when emphasizing that it excludes U.S. national security systems and the commercial sector. The urgency of adopting PQC cannot be overstated.
The path to PQC can be flexible—with initial efforts beginning in different ways—but it is imperative to start immediately. Learn more about how early adopters have translated theory to practice From the Frontlines of Post-Quantum Cryptography.
Jordan Kenyon is a Senior Scientist at Booz Allen Hamilton. Taylor Brady is Senior Quantum Scientist at Booz Allen Hamilton. Joseph Munoz is Post-Quantum Cryptography Technical Lead at Booz Allen Hamilton.